Deportation case reveals a key Democratic divide: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur explores how Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s deportation has exposed a political rift among Democrats. Plus, Kristen Welker examines a critical moment in the state of the talks to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

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— Adam Wollner

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Deportation case reveals a key Democratic divide

By Sahil Kapur

A controversial deportation case has opened up a rift within the Democratic Party over how aggressively to go after President Donald Trump on an issue that has been one of his biggest political strengths.

Some members of the party are leaning heavily into Maryland resident Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s deportation to El Salvador without due process, accusing Trump of defying a court order. But others, while still objecting to Trump’s actions, have sought to shift the focus to economic concerns amid the whiplash of the president’s tariff policies and persistently high prices. 

Democratic camp No. 1: Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland has been the most outspoken Democrat on the issue, traveling to El Salvador this week to meet with Abrego Garcia and push for his release.

“If you deny the constitutional rights of one man, you threaten the constitutional rights and due process for everyone else in America,” Van Hollen said upon his return to the U.S. on Friday.

The move won praise from Democrats who have urged the party to more aggressively push back against Trump on every front possible. That included David Hogg, the 25-year-old vice chair of the Democratic National Committee, who launched a new group this week to support primary challengers against older incumbent Democratic lawmakers in blue districts.

“THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE NEED MORE OF,” Hogg wrote on X Thursday night. “We have to show people how we are fighting back and are here to protect the American people from [Trump’s] reckless agenda.” 

Democratic camp No. 2: But other prominent Democrats have avoided weighing in on the issue — or offered muted responses when asked about it.

As California Gov. Gavin Newsom rolled out a lawsuit Wednesday challenging Trump’s sweeping tariffs, he had little to say about the Abrego Garcia case when asked about it. 

“This is the distraction of the day. The art of distraction,” Newsom, a potential 2028 presidential contender, said of Trump invoking MS-13 to justify his actions. “And here, we zig and zag. This is the debate they want. This is their 80-20 issue, as they’ve described it.”

While noting that the government needs to abide by court orders and the rule of law, Newsom added, “It’s exactly the debate they want, because they don’t want this debate on the tariffs; they don’t want to be accountable to markets today.” 

How Trump is responding: The White House and its allies have relished the fight with Democrats over the Abrego Garcia case. Trump said on Truth Social that Van Hollen “looked like a fool yesterday standing in El Salvador,” accusing him of “begging for attention and calling him a “grandstander.”

What the polls say: A new CNBC poll found that majorities of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the southern border with Mexico (53%) and “deporting illegal immigrants” (52%). But his numbers were underwater on economic issues, with 57% disapproving of his tariffs on goods from other countries and 60% disapproving of his handling of inflation and the cost of living. 

Read more from Sahil →

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Trump reaches a crucial moment in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks

By Kristen Welker

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump promised to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, even as quickly as within 24 hours of taking office.

But now, after weeks at the negotiating table, his administration is now threatening to walk away from peace talks entirely.

Stunning comments from Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of negotiations in Paris with U.S., Ukrainian and European officials on Friday threw the future of the negotiations into jeopardy. 

“We need to figure out here now, within a matter of days, whether this is doable in the short term, because if it’s not, then I think we’re just going to move on,” Rubio said. 

It’s clear these comments are aimed at applying pressure on Ukraine as it inches closer to a rare earth minerals deal with the U.S., and to a lesser extent Russia. Trump said Thursday that he’s “not happy” with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and told me on the phone a few weeks back he’s “very angry” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Hours after Rubio’s comments, Vice President JD Vance struck a slightly different tone, telling reporters during a meeting in Rome that “we do feel optimistic that we can hopefully bring this war, this very brutal war, to a close.”

Trump also told reporters in the Oval Office later Friday that “Marco is right” that the U.S. wants the war to end and that “hopefully we won’t have to” walk away from peace talks. 

The good cop, bad cop coming from the administration makes it hard to determine its true posture. But the dramatic moving of the goalposts by Rubio is an admission that this key campaign promise for Trump is proving much more difficult to fulfill than he may have expected. 

Like many of Trump’s “Art of the Deal” style gambits, it’s possible the threat to leave the table ultimately creates the pressure that leads to a deal. But the repercussions of failing to land the plane would be critical.

Make sure to tune in to “Meet the Press” on Sunday, when I’ll be interviewing Sens. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., and John Kennedy, R-La.

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✉️ Mailbag: Looking ahead to the battle for the House

Thanks to everyone who emailed us this week! One reader wrote to ask about next year’s midterm elections as a growing number of candidates launch their campaigns.

“What are your thoughts on Democrats’ chances of taking back the House next year?”

To answer this, we turned to Bridget Bowman, who has been keeping tabs on all the early 2026 midterm developments. Here’s her response:

House Democrats have history on their side next year, since midterms are typically tough for the president’s party. If you look at the last six midterms for a second-term president, his party on average lost 20 House seats, according to data from the American Presidency Project.

And Democrats only need to net three seats to get to the magic number of 218 for the House majority (they currently hold 213 seats, with two vacancies in solidly Democratic districts). Democrats’ performances in recent special elections have also given them hope that they have the momentum.

But that doesn’t mean 2026 will be a slam dunk for House Democrats. There are only three House Republicans sitting in seats that Kamala Harris also carried in November — Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick, New York’s Mike Lawler and Nebraska’s Don Bacon. All three will be tough to beat, meaning Democrats will also have to target districts Donald Trump won in 2024 to be able to flip the House. Republicans have plenty of offensive opportunities, too, with around a dozen House Democrats representing districts Trump carried.

With Republicans trying to defend the narrowest of majorities, and historical trends against them, it looks like Democrats have an early edge in the fight for the House. But both parties are in for a difficult — and expensive — fight ahead.

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That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Faith Wardwell.

If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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